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European boots on Libyan ground

That’s just one of the questions facing EU foreign and defense ministers as they consider migration crisis options.

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European Union foreign ministers meeting on Monday to consider proposed military action against human traffickers in Libya find themselves faced with a series of questions on just how far they can take the fight.

At the same time, the EU is seeking approval from the United Nations for its plan, which would allow it to go after smugglers in Libyan waters — and possibly even on land.

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said Monday morning before the start of the meeting that the EU was ready to approve coordinated military action.

“I expect this decision to be taken today so we can move forward with the planning and possibly launch the operation in the coming weeks,” Mogherini said. “We are looking for partnership with all the relevant Libyan authorities, and I think this can also facilitate a resolution in the UN Security Council.”

In a joint session, EU foreign and defense ministers will discuss logistics, strategy and tactics.

The proposed headquarters for the coordinated operation would be in Rome, yet the final decision on the military action will be taken by EU leaders when they meet for a summit at the end of June. At a special summit on April 23, held after a boat disaster in the Mediterranean that resulted in the deaths of more than 800 refugees, the bloc’s heads of government and state called on Mogherini to propose a military plan under the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP).

In the meantime, Brussels is awaiting a decision from the UN Security Council on a resolution that would allow Europeans to act militarily against the smugglers. The UK, France, Spain und Lithuania are drafting the resolution and Mogherini has sounded optimistic about winning approval on it.

But there are still many obstacles: Russia has not threatened to veto it, but discussions are ongoing and it could take until June to have a vote in the UN.

The meeting in Brussels on Monday will have to address several points:

The use of ground troops

Mogherini has said several times — most recently in unveiling the European Commission’s new migration strategy last Wednesday — that the EU’s coordinated military action will not require boots on the ground.” But there’s a debate over what exactly she means by that.

In the UN, Russia has made clear that it opposes the use of jets and helicopters, and would support only a naval operation. But there are questions about whether EU naval operations could include destroying traffickers’ assets “ashore,” possibly by sending special forces units for targeted operations in Libyan ports.

Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni, in an interview Saturday with Il Corriere della Sera, said that the EU mission will also include “targeted incursions on the coasts” — an option that some say is difficult to carry out.

“How would the EU forces differentiate between a smuggling boat and a fishing boat?” said German MEP  Reinhard Bütikofer, co-chair of the European Green Party and substitute member of the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs. “What would they do if they got attacked by one or the other side of the Libyan conflict? How could they avoid civilian casualties when operating in Libyan harbors? The EU must not slide down this slippery slope.” 

Which countries will take part?

This is a key question facing ministers on Monday. It seems clear that Italy, the UK, Spain and France will be in. As many as 10 EU countries could take part in the operation.

“But it’s too early to say it right now,” said one European Commission official. “The only thing that is sure is that Italians will be in command. For the rest, generals will start talking about it if, and when, [on Monday] there will be the green light.”

With or without UN?

Mogherini has made clear that the EU will go ahead even without UN backing but, in this case, the military operation would stay far from Libyan airspace and waters. The Europeans could also push the UN to be able to intervene in Libyan waters without the backing of the Libyan authorities. But this second option seems very unlikely.

“Technically this is all true, but politically it’s not,” said Vincenzo Camporini, former chief of defense general staff in Italy and now vice-president of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, an Italian think-tank for foreign policy and strategy. “This mission is expected to be in line with the previous ones in Albania and Somalia. And in both cases the local governments, albeit weak, gave their consensus.”

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The larger issue

Ministers will also exchange views on the follow-up to the April 23 emergency summit on migration. In this context, they will take note of the Commission’s “European Agenda on Migration” presented last Wednesday, which proposes an emergency mechanism to help member states confronted with a sudden influx of migrants.

The agenda is composed of two main elements: the first one is a binding quota system for relocation to move asylum seekers from EU one member state to another. The second element is an EU-wide resettlement program for taking people in from outside the EU, setting an overall figure of 20,000 asylum-seekers over two years. But in this case it is a recommendation and not a legislative proposal.

Who will take the migrants?

The Commission is proposing a temporary distribution mechanism for persons in clear need of international protection within the EU; a proposal for a permanent EU system for relocation in emergency situations will follow by the end of 2015.

But here too there are many problems. To block the plan in the Council the opponents would need a minimum of countries representing 35 percent of the EU population. Notably, the UK is against it but London is not alone. On Saturday French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said Paris also would oppose the current quota criteria and pushed for a fairer distribution among EU countries.

Eastern European countries have also lined up in opposition.

“On behalf of the Slovak Republic, I am principally against quotas,” said Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on May 12 at a press conference in Valtice.”The political conclusions of the European Council mention unequivocally the issue of voluntarism as well as the fact that each country has the right to decide in what manner will it address this issue.”

Prague is also not convinced. “Inside Schengen, where we have no border control, the quota system won’t work,” a Czech official told POLITICO. “Refugees will go into the country they prefer — for example Germany or Sweden — and will not stay in the one that has been designated to them by the quota.”

Poland is also testing a lot of ways of saying “no” without actually using the word when to comes to the Commission proposal to share the burden of accepting refugee claimants. Poland would have to take about 5.6 percent of them — likely only a couple of thousand people.

Ewa Kopacz, Poland’s prime minister, told parliament that Poland “isn’t saying that it won’t take immigrants,” but then went on to add: “We have to assess our logistic capabilities, to take into consideration the differences in terms of the languages of these people.”

Andrzej Duda, candidate of the opposition Law and Justice party in next week’s presidential election, made the issue of what benefits Poland could squeeze out of Brussels. “If we are talking about solidarity, then let’s talk about solidarity seriously, not only when it comes to refugees.”

Jan Cienski contributed to this article.

This article was updated at 11:13 am on Monday to include comments from Federica Mogherini before the start of the Council.

Authors:
Jacopo Barigazzi 

and

Hans von der Burchard